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Who’s leading the polls?
Pennsylvania polling average
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Election day
30%
40%
50%
Aug. 30
48% Trump
48% Harris
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
As August winds down and the heat of campaign season begins, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are neck-and-neck in our averages across the key swing states that will decide the election this fall, even as Harris has a small lead in most national polls. Candidates routinely get a post-convention polling bounce, and Harris has already been riding the momentum of announcing her own candidacy and her vice-presidential pick. The coming weeks will tell us if she can sustain this wave of support. Updated Aug. 23
The latest Pennsylvania polls
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Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin in Pennsylvania has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
R+6
R+3
Even
D+3
D+6
May 30 Trump convicted
June 27 Debate
July 21 Biden leaves race
Aug. 19 Democratic convention
Aug. 30
Biden vs. Trump +5 Trump
Harris vs. Trump <1 Harris
Albert SunGraphics reporter
President Biden’s poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground.
Note: This page previously showed polls of the matchup between Biden and Trump. The data below is archived as of July 21.
Archived
Biden vs. Trump: Who was leading?
Pennsylvania polling average
Jan.
March
May
July
Sept.
Election day
30%
40%
50%
July 21
44% Biden
48% Trump
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
President Biden had trailed former President Donald J. Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. This page will be updated as more polling becomes available on Harris and other potential replacements. Updated July 21
Archived
Biden vs. Trump polls in Pennsylvania
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Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
