The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?)haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)
After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -
a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Gold Price Consolidating at High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has generally drifted sideways for a couple months now, consolidating high. That lack of progress has significantly eroded sentiment, bleeding off greed and stoking bearishness. But this healthy process is exactly what gold needed to rebalance sentiment. After soaring to extremely-overbought levels in April, greed grew excessive. The high consolidation since is bleeding that off, readying gold for another surge higher.
From mid-February to mid-April, gold blasted a powerful 20.0% higher in a remarkable breakout surge. Fully 19 new nominal record closes were achieved in that short span, which really excited traders! The lion’s share of that upside wasn’t fueled by gold’s usual primary drivers, speculators buying gold futures and American stock investors buying gold-ETF shares. Chinese investors and central banks took the helm.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year. For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) valuation in 6 weeks. BRK is the empire legendary investor Warren Buffet spent his entire lifetime building. NVDA is now worth over 10% of US GDP. That means AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA are now worth more than 1/3rd of our nation's entire economic output. All previous stock market bubbles share the following in common: a narrow stock market rally that focuses on a small group of stocks in a small sector of the economy that Wall Street is working overtime on promoting. AI fits this profile perfectly. I am not disputing that AI is going to be a productivity boom. Nevertheless, NVDA is now in a bubble. The stock is predicated on spurious and ephemeral demand for its chips, which will collapse in the economic downturn ahead.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg
Conversations about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates any time soon continue to dominate the airwaves. But we are looking elsewhere for signs about where markets and the economy are headed.
Having observed market behavior for 45 years, we've got a lot of historical precedents to lean on. The emerging picture suggests that investors not paying attention may be caught unprepared for an impending change.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a very similar pattern to the US Dollar, we had negative divergence in the bull bear % spread going into the end March S&P top which at 48 does not have far to go before it enters into an over sold state below 30, again suggesting that most of the decline is behind us. Remember we are in a bull market so bearish readings are going to be infrequent and short lived.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
/ Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
One of the extraordinary features of today’s equity market is the extreme concentration of S&P 500 in a handful of names. Most readers know that stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, the “AI plays”, essentially drive the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We were interested in seeing the degree of market concentration at the last bubble peak in 2000. Historically, narrow market leadership portends future weakness in prices. So we did some quantitative work and put together some interesting charts updating our “S&P 495” chart series. We added one name, Nvidia, to create the Super 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta), and compared these six to the remaining 494 stocks, the S&P 494.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those who have followed my stock market analysis through the years, you would likely remember that, many years ago, I set a minimum long-term target for the SPX at 5350, with potential to rally as high as 6000SPX. In fact, many of you may also remember my expectation for a 30% correction, which I was publishing in late 2019 and early 2020, well before anyone even heard the word Covid.In fact, I even publicly suggested a short trade on EEM (because it had the best low risk, high probability set up of the index charts I was tracking at the time) back in February of 2020. And, then as the SPX dropped down to our long-term target in the 2200SPX region, I outlined my expectation for the market to bottom and begin a rally taking us north of 4000SPX. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 07, 2024
/ Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P trend tends to be inversely correlated to the USD trend as this inverted chart of the USD illustrates, where what the stock market seeks is either a dollar trending higher or a stable dollar within a range.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Credit card and auto loans are increasing the risk on bank balance sheets.
The largest holders of these loans include JP Morgan, Citibank, and Capital One.
You have to engage in due diligence regarding the banks that house your hard-earned money to make sure you're not caught during a banking crisis.
A month ago, we published an article on consumer debt, which is becoming a huge issue for the banks from a credit quality perspective, as both credit cards and auto loans have posted sharp increases in delinquency ratios.
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Saturday, May 25, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the comments I receive is that the Reverse Repo liquidity pool getting drained,, won't that mean that the stock market then hits a brick wall?
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Friday, May 24, 2024
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors / Stock-Markets / Banksters
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed and two other U.S. banking regulators are going to significantly reduce a planned increase in capital requirements for the country's large banks.
As a reminder, the regulators were planning a 16% increase in capital levels and a 20% increase in RWAs (risk-weighted assets) for the banks with total assets of more than $100B. These changes should have improved the banks’ financial resilience and prepared them to better absorb potential losses.
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Friday, May 24, 2024
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: EWI
Another bank failure, another underperforming share price.
Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank was closed down on Friday, April 26, and the assets were sold to Fulton Bank. Republic First becomes the first bank failure of 2024. Given our outlook for the stock market and the economy, it will probably not be the last.
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Thursday, May 23, 2024
/ Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
The S&P 500 index of large cap U.S. stocks has rallied +49% since the October 2022 lows, and +28% since the most recent October 2023 lows. Bulls argue that the equity rally has much more time to run. Typical bull markets last about 5 years. If we consider the January to October 2023 correction to have been a significant bear market that reset the excesses from the prior bull market, then the bull market longevity argument makes senses. Recall that the S&P 500 fell -26% from January to October 2023 following the post-Covid “bull market”, resulting in +108% equity gains. On the other hand, if we argue the bearish case, Covid distortions likely mean that the typical lengths (and magnitudes) of the bull and bear phases can’t be applied today. Bears could argue that the 2022 correction/bear market represented a mid-cycle correction or just a cooling of the excessive movement from April 2000 to December 2021. In any case, whether this is year 4 of a bull market that begin in 2020 or year 2 of a bull market that begin in 2022 would seem to have little predictive power of how much longer equities will rally, assuming again that Covid distortions will skew historical trends.
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Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..
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Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"How High Can Markets Go?" -- asks this magazine cover
Paul Montgomery's Magazine Cover Indicator postulates that by the time a financial asset makes it to the cover of a well-known news weekly, the existing trend has been going on for so long that it's getting close to a reversal.
A classic case in point is this Time magazine cover from June 13, 2005:
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Monday, April 29, 2024
AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season Stock Market Correction Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's your lucky day, you gain access to my latest daily brief posted Saturday covering the current state of the stock market earnings season correction that was first been made available to patrons who support my work yesterday.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
/ Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
We have been hearing financial media pundits tells us that the stock market will continue to rise throughout 2024. One of their arguments is that we are in a presidential election year. The link between the stock market and the election cycle is simply that the incumbent party increases fiscal spending to stimulate growth and make Americans feel better about the economy, and hence the chances of the incumbent party getting re-elected. More spending is good for firm profits, and stocks rise. The Biden administration is certainly adhering to this tradition with massive fiscal spending in 2024.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
Stock Market "Bullish Buzz" Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
Learn what the AIM Index reveals
Yes, there's been a recent pickup in stock market volatility, but overall, bullish sentiment remains very much alive and well.
Indeed, here's a Feb. 18 Yahoo! Finance headline:
A Bull Market is Here.
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